Marketing

Last December I was lamenting the industry analyst forecasts were all over the map. One particular analyst, Analyst Bravo, had unbelievabily optimistic numbers. Here’s a better chart depicting the market predictions of four analysts for hard-boiled eggs (HBE), soft-boiled eggs (SBE) and Jewel-encrusted eggs. Everyone acknowledges the hard- and soft-boiled eggs market is declining while deluxe, jewel-encrusted eggs are the future: You don’t have to be an analyst to see that Analyst Bravo thinks the hard- and soft-boiled egg market is going to remain strong. Last month Analyst Alpha, who only reports on total boiled eggs, adjusted their 2004 and future “forecast” down about 20% from where they were last year. Their estimates are similar to Analysts Charlie and Delta. I’ve also manually corroborated the estimates with the third quarter financial reports. Much like the dry Pancake Mix market, four major players serve 90% of the market. In the next two weeks, I’ll have another set of annual reports to pore through and I don’t expect a miraculous upswing in the market: after trying jewel-encrusted eggs, no one goes back to mere boiled. Switching among boiled egg suppliers is very easy as there’s little practical differentiation. (Sure, some paint letters on the eggs or dye the shells or even use paper cartons. Customers see these features as gravy.) ...

One motivation for the exercise last week in reviewing 10-Q/Ks was to come up with some forecasts on the marketplace. We also use an array of industry analysts who are ostensibly better connected and do this stuff all day, but the numbers I’ve seen are all over the place. Consider the following chart: Dozens of Hard-Boiled Eggs Consumed per Year (I know this is busy, but I had to take out the PII because I don’t like talking about specifics of my employment. If it helps, assume that I’m just a simple data farmer.) ...

I had a weird dream last night. In the dream, I made a gazillion dollars because I wrote a program that automatically generated wholly truthful and accurate status reports. (This is especially funny if you ponder the irony of designing software pointing out software ironies.) It was based on MadLibs, rendered in a template like this: This project is adjective ( doomed; not dead yet, but coughing up blood; dead). Important Person (VP, CIO, customer) verb phrase (is still withholding information, has been meddling/changing requirements again, won’t make up their mind), marketing verb phrase (hasn’t finished the specification, is too busy playing golf/doing field research, doesn’t have any use cases, gives us specifications relying on 23rd-century Star Trek technology), the developers are excuse (pulling dates from their imaginations, playing Doom III, still trying to work out the answer to the moving Mt. Fuji interview question), ...

In June, a New York Times article said there were fewer complaints about cubicles from job seekers. It seems people are now less likely to worry about whether their workspace is equipped with walls, doors and Herman Miller chairs. Well, Duh. As the market pendulum has swung from seekers to employers, it’s not a stretch to say people are so thankful to even have a job, they’re less concerned with petty luxuries. Today, I’m going to reflect upon the “then” (when George Bush was in office) and “now” (with George Bush in office). ...

What is the game of “Chicken?” In the movies, two hooligans with something to prove settle their differences by racing their cars towards each other. The first one to turn away, averting certain collision, is the “chicken” and loses face among his cohorts. The other player, referred to as the “winner,” gets bragging rights and the fickle heroine. If no one turns — which is a theoretical possibility, but in practice, never happens in the movies (dramatic license and all that) — the game is officially a draw. A rematch is unlikely, but both participants are automatically entered as co-nominees for the Darwin Awards. ...

(for maximum humor value, mouse-over the dashed lines.) Long ago, before the mists of the dot com era wafted down upon the masses, I worked at a company that made bananas. I traveled to a customer site with Tim, the company’s top salesman to observe his crafitness. After we met with the Zookeeper and Primate Custodian, Tim went through the familiar sales spiel, highlighting the importance of bananas: high in potassium, a good source of energy while cycling, and in fashionable yellow. He was about to segue into the specific differentiators our bananas had, when the Zookeeper (the decision maker) asked the question: “Can your bananas be used to kill someone?“ ...