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We had a little snow a couple of days ago and got more tonight — it actually seems to be sticking now. The upcoming forecast varies depending on what you want to believe. So, for the next few days, I’m going to track which of the various weather resources is most accurate.
To keep these forecasts comparable, I chose the my home airfield of KBFI. It’s just over 4 miles from downtown, fairly close to Puget Sound, and low elevation. Thus, no funny stuff. I will update the results the following morning and on Tuesday, we will see which one’s the most accurate.
| Source | Tonight (1/1/2004) |
Friday (1/2/2004) |
Saturday (1/3/2004) |
Sunday (1/4/2004) |
Monday (1/5/2004) |
Tuesday (1/6/2004) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Times | Showers 39/32 |
Mixed 39/32 |
Snow 38/31 |
Mostly cloudy 32/29 |
Partly sunny 35/19 |
|
| Revised 1/2: | Snow 35/20 |
Partly sunny 29/29 |
Partly sunny 35/19 |
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| Revised 1/3: | Mostly sunny 29/16 |
Partly sunny 30/19 |
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| Revised 1/4: | Mostly cloudy 30/25 |
Snow 37/26 |
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| The Weather Channel | Snow showers /25 |
Rain/show showers 38/32 |
Snow showers 38/18 |
Partly cloudy 29/29 |
Partly cloudy 35/19 |
|
| Revised 1/2: | Snow 35/20 |
Partly cloudy 28/15 |
Partly cloudy 28/19 |
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| Revised 1/3: | Mostly sunny 29/16 |
Mostly cloudy 32/25 |
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| Revised 1/4: | Mostly cloudy 31/25 |
Wintry mix 38/32 |
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| Seattle PI/KOMO TV 4 | Rain, Cloudy and cold 40/30 |
Cloudy and cold 35/28 |
Snow 32/20 |
Cold with some sun 28/22 |
Cloudy and cold 32/22 |
|
| Revised 1/2: | Snow 30/20 |
Partly sunny 28/18 |
Chance of snow 30/26 |
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| Revised 1/3: | Mostly sunny 26/16 |
Chance of snow 30/26 |
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| Revised 1/4: | Mostly sunny 30/24 |
Snow and sleet 38/36 |
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| KIRO TV 7 | Mixed snow/rain 38/33 |
Mixed snow/rain 38/32 |
Snow 35/30 |
Partly sunny 32/26 |
Mixed snow/rain 35/24 |
|
| Revised 1/2: | Snow 33/30 |
Partly sunny 29/20 |
Snow 33/24 |
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| Revised 1/3: | Partly sunny 29/20 |
Snow 33/24 |
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| Revised 1/4: | Snow Flurries 30/14 |
4-12″ Snow! 37/28 |
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| KING TV 5 | Mostly cloudy 37/31 |
Mixed rain/snow 37/31 |
Snow 35/32 |
Sunny 35/28 |
Partly cloudy 36/26 |
|
| Revised 1/2: | Snow 33/30 |
Sunny 30/22 |
Snow 31/19 |
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| Revised 1/3: | Mostly Sunny 33/27 |
Snow 45/20 |
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| Revised 1/4: | Snow 32/28 |
Wet snow 41/28 |
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| KCPQ TV 13 | Scattered rain/snow /31 |
Rain and snow 37/30 |
Morning snow 32/21 |
Mostly sunny 28/19 |
Mostly cloudy 32/23 |
|
| Revised 1/2: | Snow 29/21 |
Sunny 29/21 |
Snow late 30/22 |
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| Revised 1/3: | Sunny 27/16 |
Snow late 32/28 |
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| Revised 1/4: | Snow late 32/28 |
Snow then rain 42/38 |
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| AccuWeather | Snow or flurries /30 |
Rain or snow shower 36/29 |
Snow or flurries 34/19 |
Partly cloudy 29/20 |
Mostly cloudy 32/23 |
|
| Revised 1/2: | Morning snow 33/17 |
Partly sunny 29/15 |
Snow late 35/30 |
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| Revised 1/3: | Mostly sunny 30/12 |
Snow, ice, rain 34/27 |
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| Revised 1/4: | Sunny then snow late 29/23 |
Snow, sleet, rain 42/37 |
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| National Weather Service | Light rain or snow /31 |
Rain or snow showers 37/25 |
Partly cloudy 35/23 |
Mostly sunny 35/23 |
Partly cloudy 35/25 |
Gives ranges |
| Revised 1/2: | Morning snow 33/17 |
Sunny 27/20 |
Snow late 33/28 |
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| Revised 1/3: | Sunny 27/16 |
Snow late 30/25 |
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| Revised 1/4: | Snow late 30/25 |
Snow then rain 38/43 |
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| Actual | Rain, Snow 41/33.1 |
Rain, Snow 39/30.9 |
Snow 37.9/26.6 |
Mostly sunny 30/19.4 |
Overcast 28.9/19.4 |
|
| Winner | KIRO TV7 | Seattle Times | Seattle Times | KIRO TV7 | Seattle PI/KOMO TV4 | |
| Runner(s) up | KCPQ TV 13, NWS |
Weather Channel, KIRO TV 7, KING TV 5 |
KIRO TV 7, KOMO TV 4 | AccuWeather | KCPQ TV13, AccuWeather |
Update 1/2/2004: Congratulations to KIRO TV 7 for being the closest to the official reported conditions for last night. I’m kind of surprised, given that there wasn’t much forecasting left to do for last night’s weather, how much the forecasts for last night differed.
We had about 2″ of snow where I live, and my kids are conducting experiments with snowballs in the freezer and building snow blobs on the curb.
I forgot to mention earlier that the National Weather Service forecast is the most wishy washy, providing ranges like “Highs in the lower to mid 30s.”
Update 1/3/2004: The Seattle Times edged out the pack, though there wasn’t that much discrepancy because of the broad forecast (“rain or snow”), thus temperature factored more than normal. Curiously, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and KOMO TV 4 did not forecast snow for Thursday or today.
As an added dimension, I’ve recorded revised forecasts underneath the original (it’s the smaller font). The first one is from tonight (Friday) for the remaining days. I will add additional lines for Saturday and Sunday’s revisions to provide some visibility into tweaking. I think Susan Dennis said it best, “My guess is they did not buy their 8 balls at the same place.”
Update 1/3/2004 @ 11:00 p.m.: I’ve updated the forecasts and will add the “actual” tomorrow morning as there may still be some cooling.
Update 1/4/2004 @ 8:58 a.m.: As everyone — except the initial NWS forecast — predicted, it snowed yesterday. The Seattle Times was the closest in actual temperature, thus they are our winner for Saturday. I noticed that all of the revised forecasts for Saturday were further off the actual temperature at the official site. For example, the Seattle Times was initially five degrees off the high/low ((38 – 37.9) + (31 – 26)), but revised their temperatures further down and were nine degrees off ((35 – 37.9) + (26 – 20)). For the record, I’m measuring the low during the 24 hour period ending at 23:59:59 local time.
Update 1/4/2004 @ 8:50 p.m.: The forecasts for Tuesday are pretty interesting with one station going out on the line and calling for 4-12″ of snow and another hinting this could be as big as the ‘zard of 1996. I’ve added those to the table, but they won’t be included in the final results. (Or maybe they should, as they’re so vastly different 😉 Tonight’s winner will be updated later this evening.
Update 1/5/2004 @ 7:17 a.m.: Originally, everyone except the Seattle Times originally predicted a lot of sun. KIRO TV 7 and KING TV 5 were the closest to the actual temperatures. (KIRO edged out KING by 0.2 degrees, hence is today’s winner.) Looking at the revised forecasts, everyone except KING TV 4 got further off in temperature.
Today’s forecasts range from mostly sunny to snow. This will serve as a tie-breaker for the Seattle Times and KIRO TV 7.
Update 1/6/2004 @ 12:20 a.m.: Here’s a bizarre result… based on the original forecasts, Seattle PI/KOMO TV4 was the closest, however they revised it to mostly sunny, which is certainly wasn’t. KCPQ TV13 and AccuWeather were runners up with “mostly cloudy” and 6.7 degrees difference from actual.
KIRO TV7 is most accurate overall based on being closest two days and runner up two days. (Not weighted, but still worth noting is their original forecast for Monday was about six hours too aggressive. It will likely snow Tuesday morning, turning to rain sometime thereafter.)
Congratulations, KIRO TV7!
PERFECT!!! Earlier in the week I was looking for a forecast graphic that had flakes in ever day of the 5 day forecase. King 5 was the only one and I was amazed at how different all the sources were. This is a GREAT project! Can’t wait to see the results.
I agree – great project! Seems time consuming, though, with all the varying details and so many sources!
> Seems time consuming
Yep, but it’s something I’ve always been curious about. (There’s a long list of things… new year’s resolution and all that :0)
Hope you’re feeling better Fran!
I noticed weatherman Patrick Hammer tonight pre-emptively compared Tuesday’s forecasted snowstorm to the big one of post-Christmas 1996. I think he may be sticking his neck out a little too far but we’ll see!
Now… that 1996 one was the best… I do remember eating Christmas dinner at 13 Coins and the couple at the table next to us told us that they had heard that downtown Seattle was going to get 18 inches of snow. I remember how we laughed at them after they left. I remember the 18 inches of snow the next day… I could do that again. Wonder if I need to start with dinner at 13 Coins on Monday?
> pre-emptively compared Tuesday’s forecasted snowstorm
I heard that too. That would be pretty spectacular. How did Seattle fare during that period?
For comparisons, I lived in Austin prior to moving here and we used to get a light dusting the last week of January. (The natives swore it happened only once every 7 years, but I saw it four years in a row.) This was enough to paralyze the city for a couple of days because there are numerous uninsulated bridges with people willing to drive on them. Such a contrast to Chicago…
How did Seattle fare?
Well, it was pretty wild. It snowed buckets the day after Christmas (which I think was a Friday) and then it skipped a day and snowed more buckets on Sunday. Since a whole lot of people were on vacation, it wasn’t as bad as you might think. Except the snow demolished things like those aluminum carports for boats and even some house roofs.
I, of course, had a uniquely different snow disaster. I do no cook. I had my friend, John, in from California for the holidays. Our plan was to sample all our favorite restaurants. When the snow hit, they closed. We had no food. I mean pickle juice, yes. And some stale crackers. But, we nearly starved to death. We finally hiked up to the Alexis Hotel and begged. They were only serving hotel guests but John was very persuasive. For lunch the next day we went over to the ferry dock and took the ferry over to Bainbridge and back just so we could get lunch. It was a rough several days 🙂 I have food now, tho. I’m ready.
Oh man. I better get to the supermarket and stock up for the siege. That ’96 storm was right before we moved here. In Chicago it’s easier to drive in snow ’cause it’s flat and because they use SALT, which has more of an effect than sand. Still, I spun out my car once on a snowy street. No damage except to my composure!
I’m going to go look for a sled for my kiddos. 🙂
KIRO, which has (so far) had more accurate reports, estimates 4-12″ of snow. However, forecasts beyond that show it warming up to the 40s with rain.
I went to Utah to ski in ‘real snow’ during the ’96 storm. It was dry there, and Washington was covered in snow. I came home after it melted. Bah!
Photos from the 1996 storm were posted on the KOMO web site.
mr. carson, this is very very interesting….I’m finding it difficult however to ascertain how many days of sun we have had since march, o4? I have a friend who indicates we have had about 12 days of sun this spring and summer…which of course he is wrong……but I’m having difficulty sifting through all of this to determine otherwise?
thanks for your wonderful site!
This is really difficult for a variety of reasons. First, where is your data point? What defines sunny — like all day with no clouds? Or is partly cloudy okay?
I found that precipitation data here (Handy Excel spreadsheet), though you will have to do some adding up columns. It doesn’t provide cloud cover, however. For example, it could have been overcast, but as long as it didn’t rain, you might read this as clear.
You could always troll manually through their daily synopsis, but that’s very tedious.
Beautiful Seattle had some historical data for February that I used. According to them: July had 11 sunny days, May had 1, April 10, March 0. Total: 21, plus whatever we had in August.